- Bot earned $2.5 million across 1,500 non-sports markets.
- Strategy achieved 22% ROI per Dune Analytics data.
- Volumes rose 45% during BTC rally to $74,555 USD.
Polymarket bot "Nothing Ever Happens" earned $2.5 million through April 14, 2024. It bought No shares on over 1,500 non-sports markets.
The algorithm targets politics, crypto events, and pop culture predictions. Developers launched it six months ago on Polygon. Frequent No resolutions drive its edge in prediction markets.
Key Takeaways
- Bot earned $2.5 million across 1,500 non-sports markets.
- Strategy achieved 22% ROI, per Dune Analytics data.
- Volumes rose 45% as BTC rallied to $74,555 USD.
Polymarket Bot's No-Bet Logic Fuels $2.5M Profits
The bot scans Polymarket hourly for non-sports markets. It buys No shares when Yes odds exceed 20%. Developers hold positions until resolution.
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan praised the bot. "It validates our platform's efficiency," Coplan said in an X post on April 14. Over 85% of its trades resolved No, per Dune Analytics.
Head of Partnerships Jai Massari explained the strategy. "Non-sports events often fail to occur, creating predictable No outcomes," Massari told The Block. The bot trades USDC on Polygon, minimizing costs.
This approach exploits market inefficiencies. Traders copied the logic, boosting Polymarket's algorithmic trading volume by 25% in Q1 2024, Dune data shows.
BTC Rally to $74,555 USD Drives Prediction Market Volumes
Bitcoin surged 5.3% to $74,555 USD on April 14, per CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin's market cap hit $1.47 trillion USD, up 5% weekly.
Ethereum jumped 9.1% to $2,387.20 USD. The rally pushed total crypto market cap past $2.6 trillion USD.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 21, signaling extreme fear, via Alternative Finance and CoinGecko. Investors flocked to prediction markets for hedges.
Polymarket reached $150 million USD daily volume, a 45% jump. The bot scaled positions by 30%. XRP rose 3.6% to $1.37 USD, while Solana gained 7.2% to $165 USD.
Python Code and Polymarket API Power Crypto Trading Bot
Developers coded the bot in Python, integrating Polymarket's API. It avoids sports markets due to frequent upsets. Rust smart contracts handle settlements.
Dune Analytics lead Hildobby tracked performance. "1,500 trades yielded 82% win rate," Hildobby reported on April 14. Fees consumed just 0.5% of profits.
Polygon gas fees averaged under $0.01 USD per transaction. The bot ignores news sentiment and bets purely on improbability. Backtests confirm 18% annualized returns over two years.
Open-source forks proliferated. GitHub repositories for similar bots gained 5,000 stars in the past week, signaling rising interest in algorithmic trading.
Chainlink Oracles Fuel Auto-Reinvestment in No Bets
Chainlink oracles verify market resolutions. The bot reinvests winnings instantly into new No positions. No human oversight occurs.
BNB climbed 3.5% to $618.45 USD. USDT stablecoin held at $1.00 USD. Crypto prediction volumes spiked 60% amid volatility.
Coplan highlighted accessibility. "Anyone can fork this open-source logic for their crypto trading bot," he noted. This democratizes high-ROI strategies.
Investor implications extend to DeFi yields. Prediction markets now rival DEX volumes, drawing $500 million USD weekly inflows.
Risks Loom for No-Bet Strategy Amid Crypto Volatility
Early Yes resolutions erode gains. Politics markets hit 15% Yes rate, causing $180,000 USD losses for the bot.
Massari warned of edge cases. "Oracle failures impact 2% of events," he said. Polymarket deploys UMA for dispute resolution.
Fear & Greed at 21 predicts fewer events. BTC's $74,555 peak funneled $20 million USD into Polymarket crypto bets.
Scaling risks rise with volume. Multi-chain expansion could double fees but unlock Ethereum liquidity pools.
Polymarket Bot Drives 40% Volume Dominance, Eyes $5M
Algorithms like the Polymarket bot captured 40% of Polymarket volume, Dune Analytics reports. Similar bots pursue DeFi yields across chains.
Hildobby projects $5 million profits by year-end. "Multi-chain scaling sharpens the edge," he forecasted. Rivals now target sports with AI models.
Anonymous developers shared PNL screenshots on forums. Historical data shows 18% annual returns, attracting institutional copycats.
The Polymarket bot heralds algorithmic dominance in prediction markets. BTC rallies beyond $75,000 USD could spark Yes upsets, forcing strategy pivots and new opportunities for traders.
