According to the latest Reuters polling analysis, taken from opinion polling from May to August and 2016 exit poll data has found that President Donald Trump’s supporters are less motivated this election cycle than they were in 2016. Although non-college-educated whites comprise 44 percent of the electorate and were pivotal to Trump’s 2016 victory, less of them support him this time around.
“Trump is still more popular with this group than Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, with 46% saying they would vote for Trump, compared with 34% who back Biden,” Reuters reports. “But his 12-point advantage in August is down from a 21-point lead in May, and well below the 34-point advantage he had over [Hillary] Clinton.”
Non-college educated voters are less committed to voting than Democrats (particularly minority groups) and “The data suggests that this time, there will be greater pressure on the Republican Party – and not the Democratic Party – to boost voter turnout to win.”
61 percent of non-college-educated whites say they disapprove of the direction the country is going in. 53 percent had similar thoughts about the American economy. 70 percent said the coronavirus pandemic is chief among their concerns. 48 percent said they approve of the way Trump has handled the crisis.
“This is rare, and it’s an interesting indication of how energized or agitated the electorate is,” said Donald Green, a political scientist at Columbia University. “People who would ordinarily not make it past the likely voter screen are doing so because they’re so decisively hostile toward the president.”
Reuter’s analysis also found Trump’s electoral opponent, Democrat Joe Biden, leads Trump by 10 percentage points in election scenarios including those most likely to cast a vote in November’s general election. Meanwhile, 48 percent of college-educated-whites said they would support Biden compared to 40 percent who said they would support Trump.